[Bug-gnubg] Strange analysis output

[Jim Segrave]

I was looking at a move I made which gnubg flagged as bad, and I can't
see why it's flagged that way:

Position: ZbsBAB7nbjMAAA
Match Id: cAlmAQAAAAAA

 GNU Backgammon  Position ID: ZbsBAB7nbjMAAA
                 Match ID   : cAlmAQAAAAAA
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: gnubg
 |                O |   | O  O  O     O  O |     0 points
 |                O |   | O  O  O          |     
 |                  |   | O                |     
 |                  |   |                  |     
 |                  |   |                  |    
v|                  |BAR|                  |     11 point match (Cube: 1)
 |                  |   |                  |    
 |                  |   |             O    |     
 |                  |   |       X  X  O  X |     
 |             X    |   | X  X  X  X  O  X |     Rolled 41
 |             X    |   | X  X  X  X  O  X |     0 points
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: jes



>From the Annotation window:

    1. Cubeful 2-ply    5/4 5/1                      Eq.:  +1.033
       0.728 0.371 0.009 - 0.272 0.027 0.000
        2-ply cubeful 100% speed, 8 cand., 0.16 tol. [world class]
*   2. Cubeful 2-ply    8/7 8/4                      Eq.:  +0.950 (     -0.083)
       0.730 0.413 0.016 - 0.270 0.027 0.000
        2-ply cubeful 100% speed, 8 cand., 0.16 tol. [world class]

The move I made 8/7 8/4 has a
higher probability of a win          0.730 vs 0.728
higher probability of a gammon       0.413 vs 0.371
higher probability of a backgammon   0.016 vs 0.009
and the
same probabilities of being gammoned or backgammoned. So why is the
equity lower? What am I missing or misunderstanding?

-- 
Jim Segrave           address@hidden