Re: [Bug-gnubg] FIBS rating and error rates

[Joern Thyssen]

On Thu, Aug 21, 2003 at 08:00:13AM +0200, address@hidden wrote
> One issue in the rating formula is that I weigh moveErr and cubeErr by
> 
> errTot = moveErr/X + C*cubeErr/X, with
> X=(unforcedMoves+unforcedCubedecisions), and C=1, and assume R depends
> on errTot only.

I can't explain why, but I would rather see 

errTot = ( (1-C) * moveerr + C * cubeerr)/X

> 
> Some exploratory simulations indicate C<1. i.e., cube errors are not
> as important as is assumed.For example an errTot = .015 predicts
> R=300 but if entirely due to cube errors R = 116.
> 
> I would like to refine the R estimate by doing some simulations where
> I vary move and cube errors independently.
> 
> Please point me to any relevant previous work on this subject....

I can't recall having seen anything.

Note that Snowie uses another errTot:

errTot = (moveErr + cubeErr) /
         (total moves player 1 + total moves player2)

Jørn

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