Re: [Bug-gnubg] Evaluation inconsistency

[Ned Cross]

I'm not sure if perhaps Gammonline might be a better forum for the discussion, but

could it be that 2-ply or 3-ply cube analysis is actually BETTER than 0-ply cube handling in rollouts?

 

I don't have your original message, but IIRC the rollout was 0-ply. It also looks like a position that 2-ply checker-play would play better than 0-ply.

 

Ned

 

 

----- Original Message -----

From: "Albert Silver" <address@hidden>

To: "'Nis Jorgensen'" <address@hidden>; "GNUBackgammon bug reporting" <address@hidden>

Sent: Tuesday, September 16, 2003 10:25 AM

Subject: RE: [Bug-gnubg] Evaluation inconsistency

> 
> > It would be great if you 
posted the position - even if you don't think
> > it is relevant to the 
problem you are facing.
> 
> Naturally it is no problem to show the 
position, but as I said, it is
> completely unimportant whether my 
decision was wrong or right.
> 
> GNU Backgammon  Position ID: 
7gCAIOY2JgFCAA
> 
                 
Match ID   : UQmgAkAAEAAA
> 
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: 
MartinKrainer
> 
 |                  
|   |    X     O  O  X | 
OO  4 points
> 
 |                  
|   |          O  
O    | OO  
> 
 |                  
|   |          O  
O    | O   
> 
 |                  
|   
|                  
| O   
> 
 |                  
|   
|                  
| O  
> 
v|                  
|BAR|                  
|     21 point match
> 
 |                  
|   
|                  
|    
> 
 |                  
|   
|                  
|     
> 
 |                  
|   |          
X       |     
> 
 |             
X    |   |    X  X  
X     X |     On roll
>  | 
X     X     X  O |   
|    X  X  X  O  X |     
2 points
> 
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: 
SubtleOne (Cube: 2)
> 
> What is important is the difference in the 
size of errors from (-0.007)
> to (-0.115) when *everything* in the 
percentages is improved:
> 
>  
> Cube analysis
> 
3-ply cubeless equity  +0.345 (Money:  +0.343)
>    
72.5%   0.0%   0.0% -  27.5%   
9.7%   0.9%
>    
^^^^^                          
^^^^ 
> 3. Double, take         
+0.671  ( -0.007)
> 
                                
^^^^^^^^^
> 
> 
> Rollout cubeless equity  +0.369 
(Money:  +0.362)
> 3. Double, 
take         +0.747  ( 
-0.115)
> 
                                
^^^^^^^^^
> Player SubtleOne owns 2-cube:
>    
73.0%   0.0%   0.0% -  27.0%   
8.9%   0.9% CL  +0.369 CF  +0.862
>    
^^^^^                          
^^^^ 
> Player MartinKrainer owns 4-cube:
>    
74.0%   0.0%   0.0% -  26.0%   
8.8%   0.9% CL  +0.847 CF  +0.747
>    
^^^^^                          
^^^^
> 
> If my winning percentages according to the rollout 
*improved* from 72.5%
> to 73% or 74% then why did the size of the error 
*worsen* from -0.007 to
> -0.115 ?? That is what I want to understand. 
Mind you I also get
> gammoned less in the rollouts.
> 
> 
Albert
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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