Re: [Bug-gnubg] Fuel for the fire

[Joern Thyssen]

On Wed, Sep 17, 2003 at 10:22:55AM +0000, Joern Thyssen wrote
> On Wed, Sep 17, 2003 at 09:41:21AM +1200, Joseph Heled wrote
> > 
> > Might be a silly idea, 
> 
> Hmm, this could be an excellent idea.
> 
> > but perhaps what we need is an equivalent to 
> > "confidence interval". I
> 
> The error rate is calculated as the average error loss per "move". It's
> trivial to calculate the standard deviation and 95% confidence interval.
> 
> Does this make sense?
> 
> For example,
> 
> Error rate per decision: -0.012 (+/- 0.003)
> 
> The conf. interval is -0.009 to -0.015, so the player will be rated
> Intermediate to Advanced. Will this confuse users?

One problem I forsee is that users might misinterprete such an interval
as the uncertainty in the evaluations instead of the statistical
uncertainty in the average. 

Jørn

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