* Joseph Heled <address@hidden> [070705 12:41]:
> Even if gnubg wins a match only 49.5%, in a set of 1000 matches there
> is more than 5% chance that gnubg wins 519 of them. that what 95% (one
> sided) confidence interval means.
I guess I got it now. I probably was mislead by an article of Chuck
Bower in GOL were he described std.err as sqrt(a*b/1000) and sigma as
(a-b)/std.err (which is probably wrong).
I just had a chat with Douglas Zare. He says that sigma should be
0.5(a-b)/std.error. In other words, don't take the difference between
both bots, but between a bot and the mean (which is 500 here).
If that's correct - I'm not sure and a bit puzzled now - we get the
following numbers:
gnu/jelly 5.88 100.0%
gnu/snowie 0.69 51.0%
gnu/bgb 1.20 77.0%
bgb/jelly 2.15 96.8%
bgb/snowie 0.25 19.7%
snowie/jelly 4.56 100.0%
This definitely makes more sense. Sorry for the confusion.
Ciao
Achim
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