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[Bug-gnubg] Bug in gammon price calculations using inverted asymmetric M
From: |
Maik Stiebler |
Subject: |
[Bug-gnubg] Bug in gammon price calculations using inverted asymmetric MET's |
Date: |
Sun, 24 Mar 2013 11:42:18 +0100 |
User-agent: |
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; rv:17.0) Gecko/20130307 Thunderbird/17.0.4 |
Hi folks,
I tried to do some analysis using the Jacobs-Trice 100 MET and got a
surprising result.
Upon investigation, I found that in non-variance-reduced, non-truncated
rollouts, the rollout match equity given by gnubg did not match my hand
calculation based on the cube statistics info. I suspect that on
inversion of the match equity table, the gammon values don't get
inversed. This seems to influence not only rollouts, but also evals. I
will refrain from an awkward description of my debugging process until
you tell me this is not a known bug and just give you a symptomatic
example (sorry for the German, I hope it's easy enough to follow):
In the following positions, the 6-away player is supposed to be the
shark. In the first setup, I can use JT-100 MWC directly, in the second,
mirrored setup, I have to invert, which I do via menu Analyze->Match
equity table. The analyses should be the same, but they aren't. This is
from Version GNU Backgammon 0.91-dev-mingw 20130315 with the
experimental NN, but the bug also manifested in a version of gnubg from
2011.
GNU Backgammon Position ID: ZtsNAGDbzQ0AIA
Match ID : MIHyABAAIAAE
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ O: gnubg1
| O | | O O O O O | 1 Punkt
| O | | O O O O O | Wurf 54
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
^| |BAR| | 7-Punkte-Match (Doppler: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | X | X X X X |
| X X | X | X X X X O | 4 Punkt
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ X: gnubg2
Doppler-Analyse
2-ply MWC ohne Doppler 31.92% (Money: +0.190)
0.512 0.219 0.001 - 0.488 0.054 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Kein Doppel 32.57%
2. Doppel, Aufgabe 39.30% ( 6.73%)
3. Doppel, Annahme 31.85% ( -0.72%)
Proper cube action: Kein Doppel, Annahme (9.7%)
GNU Backgammon Position ID: ZtsNAGDbzQ0AIA
Match ID : cAngAEAACAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: gnubg1
| O O | O | O O O O X | 4 Punkt
| O O | O | O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | 7-Punkte-Match (Doppler: 1)
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X X | Am Wurf
| X | | X X X X X | 1 Punkt
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: gnubg2
Doppler-Analyse
2-ply MWC ohne Doppler 32.34% (Money: +0.190)
0.512 0.219 0.001 - 0.488 0.054 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Kein Doppel 32.71%
2. Doppel, Aufgabe 39.30% ( 6.59%)
3. Doppel, Annahme 32.38% ( -0.33%)
Proper cube action: Kein Doppel, Annahme (4.7%)
Cheers,
Maik
- [Bug-gnubg] Bug in gammon price calculations using inverted asymmetric MET's,
Maik Stiebler <=