[SwarmFest2004] Abstract submission

[Kristen M Hassmiller]

I am submitting an abstract for a poster presentation.  I would consider
giving a talk, should you prefer.  Please let me know if I can provide any
additional information.

Kristen Hassmiller, MHSA
Doctoral Candidate
Department of Health Management and Policy
School of Public Health
University of Michigan

Email: address@hidden
Daytime phone: (734)936-0939
Cell: (330)329-7455
Title: Constructing and Agent-Based Model of the Spread of Tuberculosis
Abstract:

Traditional models of the spread of disease assume perfect mixing.  This
implies that every individual is equally likely to infect any other
individual.  However this assumption is far from realistic.  Agent-based
modeling permits investigation of how different epidemics look when the
social networks tying individuals together differ.

For this poster presentation, I consider the specific case of
tuberculosis.  I will present preliminary findings on the spread of
tuberculosis through a simple simulated population with different forms of
underlying social networks.   Based on work by Watts and Strogatz (Nature,
1998), I will consider the spectrum from regular networks, to small world
networks, to random networks, comparing these to the ABM approximation of
the traditional mean-field ordinary differential equation model.  I will
also consider the generation of social networks based on rules of
interaction (i.e. local employment patterns, educational and
transportation systems, and military service) such as that used in
Epstein's ABM smallpox model (Brookings Institution Press, 2004).

I will also discuss methodological issues in making the simple
tuberculosis model more realistic, including: how to model birth and
death; updating social networks over time; incorporating heterogeneity of
agents (which impacts agents' risk of infection, progression to active
disease, time between active disease and diagnosis, adherence to
treatment); and the trade-off between simplicity and realism in the model.