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Interesting question/experiment about value of cube ownership
From: |
MK |
Subject: |
Interesting question/experiment about value of cube ownership |
Date: |
Wed, 7 Feb 2024 19:23:23 -0700 |
User-agent: |
Mozilla Thunderbird |
I'm chugging along with my mutant cube skill experiments
as I can spare time, saving all games, which I will share
on my web site, when I'm done, along with my scripts.
While doing the double at > 50% experiment, I remembered
an old question I had asked in RGB about a year ago: What
if the winner of the opening roll is allowed pre-double?
See thread:
https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/BVEnaqGM6dg/m/2c685q4DAAAJ
When you evaluate the opening position in GnuBG, this is
what you get:
=========================================================
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA
Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA
Evaluator: Contact
Win W(g) W(bg) L(g) L(bg) Equity Cubeful
static: 52.1 15.4 0.8 13.0 0.8 +0.067 +0.084
1 ply: 52.7 14.8 0.9 12.9 0.5 +0.076 +0.098
2 ply: 52.5 14.9 0.7 12.5 0.5 +0.076 +0.099
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.076
52.5 14.9 0.7 - 47.5 12.5 0.5
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.099
2. Double, pass +1.000 (+0.901)
3. Double, take -0.171 (-0.270)
Proper cube action: No double, take (23.0%)
=========================================================
I have created a Python script to intervene if the human
player wins the opening roll, to set the cube at 2 owned
by the bot, and then to execute "end game" command, for
the bot to play for both sides at the same checker and
cube skill settings.
So, you know the equity gained by winning the opening
roll and the equity lost by making the cube error at
the same time, before the first move. Can anyone tell
me what I will be expecting to see after, let's say,
10,000 games, in terms of which side will win/lose by
what percentage?
BTW: I already know. ;) I'm asking to see how confident
are you in GnuBG's equity and/or error calculations and
how competent are you to make mathematical predictions?
MK
- Interesting question/experiment about value of cube ownership,
MK <=