Hi Robert,
I for one don't think lilypond should be making decisions for you about tie direction based on an idea of sequenced phrases. I know lilypond strives to do as much good layout as it can without requiring tweaks, but this seems a step too far. There is nothing mentioned about this in the NR as far as I know. I would say it is undesirable, and a defect. Others may differ. I would go so far as to attempt to raise this as a bug on the bug list for further evaluation.
To work around this, bug or not, you can just control the tie direction, for example:
\override Tie.direction = #UP
In most of my scores I am resigned to having to specify direction for each and every tie with ^ and _ to precisely express what my composer colleague writes, so I tend not to notice the behaviour you have spotted.
Andrew