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From: | Neil Robins |
Subject: | [Bug-gnubg] Use of Two-Sided DB in matches |
Date: | Sat, 5 Sep 2009 05:56:10 +0100 |
It has occurred to me that in a position like this
previously discussed one:
GNU Backgammon Position ID:
gwEAQCoAAAAAAA
Match ID : cAmgACAAGAAA +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: gnubg | | | O O | OOO 2 points | | | O O | OO | | | | OO | | | | OO | | | | OO v| |BAR| | 5 point match (Cube: 1) | | | | XX | | | | XX | | | | XX | | | | XX On roll | | | X X X X | XXX 3 points +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: Neil The MWC chance following Double/Take is directly
obtainable from the Two-Sided Database. Doubling produces an automatic redouble
so the situation is in effect cubeless.
The DB gives Cubeless equity: +0.4707.
Therefore where x = MWC/100
x - (1 - x) = 0.4707
x = 0.73535
MWC = 73.535% after Double/Take
This is in very close agreement with the XG
rollout.
Is there any reason GNU analysis cannot use this
exact method?
I feel I still get complete nonsense here with the
latest windows build.
7-ply cubeless MWC 67.39% (Money:
+0.387)
0.694 0.000 0.000 - 0.306 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. No double 70.06% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 5.01%) 3. Double, take 69.36% ( -0.70%) Proper cube action: No double, take (12.3%) It also sure worries me to get rollout results that
are quite certainly wrong.
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube: 0.728 0.000 0.000 - 0.272 0.000 0.000 CL 68.25% CF 70.66% [0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF 0.00%] Player gnubg owns 2-cube: 0.732 0.000 0.000 - 0.268 0.000 0.000 CL 81.71% CF 73.16% [0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF 0.00%] Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 129600 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865036646 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
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