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From: | Michael Petch |
Subject: | Re: [Bug-gnubg] Use of Two-Sided DB in matches |
Date: | Fri, 04 Sep 2009 23:15:02 -0600 |
User-agent: | Microsoft-Entourage/12.20.0.090605 |
It has occurred to me that in a position like this previously discussed one:
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=47213
GNU Backgammon Position ID: gwEAQCoAAAAAAA
Match ID : cAmgACAAGAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: gnubg
| | | O O | OOO 2 points
| | | O O | OO
| | | | OO
| | | | OO
| | | | OO
v| |BAR| | 5 point match (Cube: 1)
| | | | XX
| | | | XX
| | | | XX
| | | | XX On roll
| | | X X X X | XXX 3 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: Neil
The MWC chance following Double/Take is directly obtainable from the Two-Sided Database. Doubling produces an automatic redouble so the situation is in effect cubeless.
The DB gives Cubeless equity: +0.4707.
Therefore where x = MWC/100
x - (1 - x) = 0.4707
x = 0.73535
MWC = 73.535% after Double/Take
This is in very close agreement with the XG rollout.
Is there any reason GNU analysis cannot use this exact method?
I feel I still get complete nonsense here with the latest windows build.
7-ply cubeless MWC 67.39% (Money: +0.387)
0.694 0.000 0.000 - 0.306 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double 70.06%
2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 5.01%)
3. Double, take 69.36% ( -0.70%)
Proper cube action: No double, take (12.3%)
It also sure worries me to get rollout results that are quite certainly wrong.
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.728 0.000 0.000 - 0.272 0.000 0.000 CL 68.25% CF 70.66%
[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF 0.00%]
Player gnubg owns 2-cube:
0.732 0.000 0.000 - 0.268 0.000 0.000 CL 81.71% CF 73.16%
[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF 0.00%]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
129600 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865036646 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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