[Top][All Lists]
[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
Re: [Social-discuss] Adoption dynamics (and why your intuition fails)
From: |
Ted Smith |
Subject: |
Re: [Social-discuss] Adoption dynamics (and why your intuition fails) |
Date: |
Fri, 28 May 2010 17:34:03 -0400 |
On Fri, 2010-05-28 at 21:16 +0100, Nathan wrote:
> Miron Cuperman wrote:
> > Hi all,
> >
> > We have a common goal. We would like people to control their destiny by
> > moving from proprietary social networks to distributed ones (dsns).
> >
> > However, social networks are like the Internet and the telephone, and
> > unlike, for example, Mailman or PHP. Mailman and PHP are tools. You
> > pick them up, use them, deploy them, then put them aside for awhile. A
> > social network is only useful when used in collaboration with your
> > friends and under daily engagement. A social network has very different
> > adoption dynamics from the tools that you used or helped develop.
> >
> > For a new social network to succeed, its adoption cannot be
> > incremental. It has to be a rapid exponential. After you join, 10 of
> > your friends must join within 3 days, and 50 within 3 months. Otherwise
> > it will fail, just like others have failed. (I think the Diaspora guys
> > get the adoption part. I don't know about their tech...)
> >
> > Your intuition is that you can incrementally develop a system and that
> > it will be incrementally implemented and adopted. This intuition is wrong.
> >
> > The only way to succeed is to have a "big bang" release. There must be
> > an adoption date chosen and a compelling message (like "quit FB day",
> > but with a positive alternative). There has to be an easy to adopt dsn
> > that is not too fragmented or confusing. Usability has to be
> > excellent. There has to be virality built in. You must be encouraged
> > to invite your friends and it is easy to do so. The default message to
> > your friends must be compelling. You must be able to find your friends
> > if they are already on. The user experience must be on par with what
> > they are used to.
>
> If you've got an open decentralized social network.. then why would you
> need to invite anybody? to where exactly? and why a 'big bang', I can
> see why if you're 'just another silo' trying to play catch up with
> twitter, facebook et al - but not for this - unless of course, I
> completely misunderstand what everybodies thinking & talking about.
>
To get them out of the silos. There is no way to interoperate with
Facebook. There is evil there that does not sleep.
> Regardless though, virality (?sp), is completely built in - make good,
> useful tools, where the user controls their own destiny+data, and you're
> done - build it well and the masses will come, build it badly and.. well
> no loss in the scheme of things because other will build good things :)
>
> AFAICT, this isn't really a flash in the pan thing, a miss it and you've
> messed up scenario - this is the ground work for the next generation of
> the web - pretty much an unstoppable movement.
I completely disagree. I think it's dangerous to assume that just
because things are "right", they're unstoppable - it's perfectly
possible for the silos to take over and for Facebook to reign forever.
Picture a boot datamining a human social graph, controlling all the
world's data, over and over, forever.
Diaspora does understand virality. They managed to get almost 200k by
capitalizing on Facebook users' dissent. What I think they missed,
though, was the fact that nobody will care about what Facebook did in
May in September. For that reason, I think Diaspora will have a fizzle
launch, and maybe pick up the next time Facebook does something if
nothing better has replaced them.
signature.asc
Description: This is a digitally signed message part