Re: [Social-discuss] Adoption dynamics (and why your intuition fails)

[Pablo Martin]

On 28/05/10 22:16, Nathan wrote:
> Miron Cuperman wrote:
>> Hi all,
>>
>> We have a common goal.  We would like people to control their destiny by
>> moving from proprietary social networks to distributed ones (dsns).
>>
>> However, social networks are like the Internet and the telephone, and
>> unlike, for example, Mailman or PHP.  Mailman and PHP are tools.  You
>> pick them up, use them, deploy them, then put them aside for awhile.  A
>> social network is only useful when used in collaboration with your
>> friends and under daily engagement.  A social network has very different
>> adoption dynamics from the tools that you used or helped develop.
>>
>> For a new social network to succeed, its adoption cannot be
>> incremental.  It has to be a rapid exponential.  After you join, 10 of
>> your friends must join within 3 days, and 50 within 3 months.  Otherwise
>> it will fail, just like others have failed.  (I think the Diaspora guys
>> get the adoption part.  I don't know about their tech...)
>>
>> Your intuition is that you can incrementally develop a system and that
>> it will be incrementally implemented and adopted.  This intuition is
>> wrong.
>>
>> The only way to succeed is to have a "big bang" release.  There must be
>> an adoption date chosen and a compelling message (like "quit FB day",
>> but with a positive alternative).  There has to be an easy to adopt dsn
>> that is not too fragmented or confusing.  Usability has to be
>> excellent.  There has to be virality built in.  You must be encouraged
>> to invite your friends and it is easy to do so.  The default message to
>> your friends must be compelling.  You must be able to find your friends
>> if they are already on.  The user experience must be on par with what
>> they are used to.
>
> If you've got an open decentralized social network.. then why would
> you need to invite anybody? to where exactly? and why a 'big bang', I
> can see why if you're 'just another silo' trying to play catch up with
> twitter, facebook et al - but not for this - unless of course, I
> completely misunderstand what everybodies thinking & talking about.
>
> Regardless though, virality (?sp), is completely built in - make good,
> useful tools, where the user controls their own destiny+data, and
> you're done - build it well and the masses will come, build it badly
> and.. well no loss in the scheme of things because other will build
> good things :)
>
> AFAICT, this isn't really a flash in the pan thing, a miss it and
> you've messed up scenario - this is the ground work for the next
> generation of the web - pretty much an unstoppable movement.
>


I completely agree with this view of decentralization... there is no way
to stop it and not so much need to go fast, although all the better if
it does :)

kisses

 P