calibration

[Paul Fishwick]

Well, I am glad that this new mailing list called 'simsoc' is finally
encountering some discussion and somehow we managed to bring in the
SWARM mailing list. So much the better as this is appropriate.

To respond to Philippe:

> Perhaps you are talking about ecosystems from your simulation-oriented
> point of view, as the word 'calibrate' indicates.

Perhaps I am.

> I think that a complex
> system like an ecosystem cannot be modeled with some large FSM  or even
> with a set of stochastic equations (except in the short-term): in an
> ecosystem there is probably no unique latent 'model' to be discovered,
> against which we could compare some data and make adjustments. Instead
> there probably exists many possible modes, with the system unpredictably
> switching from time to time to one or another.

I am not sure that we could argue this one way or the other. I see
no reason why a model could not be developed. When you say "many
possible modes", this can easily be modeled by stepping up a level
of abstraction so that the modes are modeled as well.

> The first thing to do could be to try to recognize these modes. 

Yes, as part of our systems identification process.

> Because
> switching is unpredictable (ecosystems seem to exhibit self-organized
> critical modes), it makes no sense to try to 'calibrate' the whole system,
> in the same manner simulation engineers calibrate a model of a factory or a
> flexible workshop.

I cannot see your logic. You say it makes no sense but do not provide
any justification for your feeling. I think we'd need to get into specifics
in order to continue along these lines.

-paul




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