Epidemiological Modelling

[Andrew Clark]

Is SWARM suitable for epidemiological modelling?,

I am a researcher working on a DFID funded project at the London School of 
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.  I am currently selecting the software to 
develop a discrete event micro-simulation model and would greatly appreciate 
your advice on the suitability of SWARM.  The model will simulate the life 
histories of Bangladeshi children and sensitivity analysis should then 
determine the benefit of vaccination.

We have proposed a 'time-to-event' approach whereby age distributions and 
random numbers are used to determine the next event for a Susceptible 
individual e.g. 1st Dose, Infection, Unrelated Death.  The age distributions 
need to be specific to the individual e.g. Male, Urban, Aged 3.2, Immunity 
Status = 0 etc.  Outcomes from events are selected via random numbers and 
transition probabilities, again dependent on the attributes of the individual.  
A central calendar then organises the events, working through them and 
allocating new ones in time order. 

The parameters are % Vaccine Coverage, % Vaccine Efficacy and Dose Schedule 
(time of 1st, 2nd & 3rd dose).

Do you think SWARM would be appropriate?  Do you have any other software 
suggestions if not?

Many thanks,


----------------------------------------------------------------------

Andy Clark

Health Services Research Unit
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/location/

Tel:      +44 (0) 20 7323 9043
Fax:     +44 (0) 20 7580 8183




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