RE: Epidemiological Modelling

[Marshall, James A R]

Andrew,
  because you intend to implement your model as a micro-simulation, or
agent-based model, there is no question that Swarm can do the job. The
details of your model are not so important in this consideration as Swarm is
"just" a set of libraries for agent-based modelling, so models are developed
as object-oriented programs (in either Objective C or Java) which gives a
very flexible way of specifying model behaviour. You would probably
primarily use Swarm's scheduling mechanisms (used to represent time and the
occurence of events) and data collection mechanisms (e.g. GUIs and data
logging), but other useful libraries are included in the Swarm package or
have been developed for it, such as spatial environments, neural nets,
genetic algorithms, etc. You are of course free to develop your own
extensions as well.
  Other ABM options exist, see
http://lark.cc.ukans.edu/~pauljohn/SwarmFaq/SwarmOnlineFaq.html#8.1 for some
examples.
  I hope this answers your question,
        James

---
Dr James A R Marshall
Container World Project - http://www.ese.ic.ac.uk/research/containerworld/
Department of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Imperial College, London
Tel: +44 (0)20 7594 7493
Fax: +44 (0)20 7594 7444


-----Original Message-----
From: Andrew Clark [mailto:address@hidden
Sent: 16 September 2002 10:57
To: address@hidden
Subject: Epidemiological Modelling


Is SWARM suitable for epidemiological modelling?,

I am a researcher working on a DFID funded project at the London School of
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.  I am currently selecting the software to
develop a discrete event micro-simulation model and would greatly appreciate
your advice on the suitability of SWARM.  The model will simulate the life
histories of Bangladeshi children and sensitivity analysis should then
determine the benefit of vaccination.

We have proposed a 'time-to-event' approach whereby age distributions and
random numbers are used to determine the next event for a Susceptible
individual e.g. 1st Dose, Infection, Unrelated Death.  The age distributions
need to be specific to the individual e.g. Male, Urban, Aged 3.2, Immunity
Status = 0 etc.  Outcomes from events are selected via random numbers and
transition probabilities, again dependent on the attributes of the
individual.  A central calendar then organises the events, working through
them and allocating new ones in time order. 

The parameters are % Vaccine Coverage, % Vaccine Efficacy and Dose Schedule
(time of 1st, 2nd & 3rd dose).

Do you think SWARM would be appropriate?  Do you have any other software
suggestions if not?

Many thanks,


----------------------------------------------------------------------

Andy Clark

Health Services Research Unit
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/location/

Tel:      +44 (0) 20 7323 9043
Fax:     +44 (0) 20 7580 8183




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                  ==================================
   Swarm-Modelling is for discussion of Simulation and Modelling techniques
   esp. using Swarm.  For list administration needs (esp. [un]subscribing),
   please send a message to <address@hidden> with "help" in the
   body of the message.
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