Re: User Estimates

[glen e. p. ropella]

benedikt> I wonder if hits to the release.html page should be used as
benedikt> an indication of active Swarm users. I probably hit it every
benedikt> week or so for some random reason.
[...]
benedikt> The most surprising statistic are the 258 downloads of
benedikt> V1.0. I assume that you factored in that the same person
benedikt> might be downloading many copies (for example fetching both
benedikt> the source and binaries)? In my case for example I fetched
benedikt> the source twice and the binaries 2-3 times.

Good point.  I did the uniqueness filtering on the downloads, 
so the 258 is how many different hostnames and ip addresses
were logged retrieving swarm-1.0.? (which includes all the
binaries and the 1.0.1 but not the apps and the docs).

I didn't do the same on the web hits.... till now.  That
number, with the uniqueness filtering is 78.  So, that 
changes the average to: 111.4 instead of 114.2.  Probably
not a significant difference.

benedikt> My hunch is that for every SwarmFest attendee there is at
benedikt> least one more person dabbling in Swarm out there, e.g. a
benedikt> user-base of about 90-100. Of course this is just a wild
benedikt> guess.

I think you're right, there, especially if we take into consideration
that alot of people will work on something, develop really interesting
models and simulations, get really cool results, then deny the rest of
us any of those results!  [I'm referring to the lurkers, who I imagine
are bursting at the seams with good ideas but don't post those ideas
because "they're too busy to chat" or "their ideas are no big deal"
etc. -- grin]

benedikt> Nevertheless this would indicate a lot of users are checking
benedikt> out the product and about to come online (since nobody can
benedikt> resist Swarm after the first bite - ne?).

Hmmm, is Swarm addictive?  I wonder if it would be an effective method
to act like drug pushers, here.... We could give away the first couple
of hits then begin charging exhorbitant amounts after they're hooked!

Ooooh, I don't guess that's a good idea.  Can you imagine swarms of
Swarm-junkies desparate for a flexible simulation toolkit wandering
the streets of New York and LA?  Hah!  You think coke addicts
are violent.....

glen